-- John Brecht
Aiken County Democratic Party Chairman
Why Obama will win South Carolina
Most pundits and even some senior Democratic Party officials in our state have said Sen. Barack Obama doesn’t have a prayer of carrying South Carolina in the fall election. He will.
History is, admittedly, on the side of the doubters. Since 1960, the only Democrat to carry South Carolina was Jimmy Carter from neighboring Georgia in 1976. In the seven presidential contests since then, Democrats have averaged only 40 percent of the vote. John Kerry got 41 percent.
But predicting the future based solely on the past is like trying to steer a car by looking backwards through the rearview mirror — often with the predictable results.
There are five reasons the results of an Obama candidacy in South Carolina will be different:
First, it’s time. Nothing is more powerful than an idea whose time has come, and Obama’s time has come. Americans are ready for something fundamentally different in our national politics. Americans are fed up with politics as usual and the politicians who deliver it. They want to move beyond the stale division, the senseless partisanship and the corruption of special-interest politics. Obama represents this fundamental change.
Second, the map and the math will be different. Traditionally, the two parties analyze past election returns and focus on a dozen or so battleground or swing states and ignore the rest of the country. The South in general and South Carolina in particular have fallen victim to this traditional math, and we have been ignored as a safe Republican state.
But Palmetto state Democrats are excited and are turning out to vote in record numbers. In the presidential primaries, more Democrats than Republicans voted for the first time in many years, with Democratic turnout up 80 percent and Republicans down 25 percent from 2004. The number of African-Americans who voted in our state’s presidential primary more than doubled.
With the realization that Obama has a real shot at becoming the first black president, excitement will grow to a fever pitch in the African-American community. About 250,000 blacks are not registered to vote, and the Obama campaign has already launched an aggressive voter registration drive. Black turnout in November will likely increase by at least a third, maybe more, over ’04 — fundamentally changing traditional Election Day math.
Third, Democrats will be united like never before. Forget all the talk about the Clintons dividing the party. In order to repair the damage they have done to the Clinton brand, they will see it in their own self-interest to enthusiastically embrace and support Obama. I predict their rehabilitation performance at the Democratic Convention will make it seem like they were the ones who made Obama’s historic breakthrough possible.
Fourth, the money. When Obama made his first trip to South Carolina in January of last year, I suggested that with a strong online effort he could raise $500 million. His response was wide-eyed amazement and disbelief. Today, he has raised more than half this amount, and he’s just now secured the nomination. I predicted that by Election Day the combined Obama/Democratic Party effort will raise $1 billion — yes, “billion” with a “b’.
The impact on the state and local level will be dramatic. For years we Democrats have fanaticized about a strong, united party with an energizing message and adequate resources to run a truly coordinated campaign from the White House to the Court House. This time, it will happen.
Fifth, Sen. John McCain’s candidacy is fundamentally flawed. Just like Bob Dole in 1996, McCain is likely to fade into bit player. Everyone respects McCain’s service to the country; he is a true American hero. But that’s not the point.
He lacks a clear and compelling vision of where he wants to take the country. His plan for Iraq looks like more of the same. And when compared to Obama’s youth and charisma, he simply seems too old and tired.
The Obama campaign will also accelerate change politics in South Carolina beyond November. It already has. In the January primary, he brought out a whole new generation of young and black voters who, having tasted success, will not likely fade away but instead will demand more. And most importantly, there is now emerging a whole new generation of reform candidates, both black and white, who are committed to changing politics as usual — from the school boards to the courthouses to the State House.
So, it’s time. It’s time for us to quit gazing backwards in the rearview mirror into the political darkness of the past. It’s time for us to look ahead to the bright new day that is dawning in Palmetto State politics.